A carefully and fully hedged outlook:
The outlook is—as seemingly always these days—dependent on outcomes in Europe. While arange of scenarios are conceivable, we simply acknowledge that an escalation of the Europeancrisis is a tail risk for our global view. If there were a messy unravelling of the crisis, contagioncould spread forcefully, tightening financial conditions across the world, and impairing globalgrowth in a meaningful way. At the first signs of that, we would revise our forecasts accordingly.
Click here for the report.
steve says:
Since you are a numbers guy, you might like this one.
http://www.angrybearblog.com/2011/12/fed-always-thinks-that-unemployments.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2FHzoh+%28Angry+Bear%29
Steve
December 19, 2011, 9:33 pmMarc Schulman says:
This is extremely interesting, Steve. I was totally unaware of this obviously non-random bias.
December 19, 2011, 9:42 pm