A carefully and fully hedged outlook:
The outlook is—as seemingly always these days—dependent on outcomes in Europe. While arange of scenarios are conceivable, we simply acknowledge that an escalation of the Europeancrisis is a tail risk for our global view. If there were a messy unravelling of the crisis, contagioncould spread forcefully, tightening financial conditions across the world, and impairing globalgrowth in a meaningful way. At the first signs of that, we would revise our forecasts accordingly.
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